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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Johnson ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 90.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Johnson ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 95.4% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Johnson ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 28.7% of passes this season.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Chiefs's pass defense ranks #27-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #6-fastest paced offense this season.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 64.3 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Steelers are a 11.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Pittsburgh to drop back to pass on 66.3% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Pittsburgh's O-Line grades out as the #8-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Johnson open.
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CONS:
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Johnson ranks in the #25 percentile and has put up 7.26 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Chiefs cornerbacks rank #7 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Johnson for a -0.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Johnson's 66.0% completion rate marks him in the #56 percentile among receivers.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 8.49 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Kansas City Chiefs rank #16-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.9%.As a unit, the Chiefs safeties rank #11 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.8% of the time (#12 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Johnson to exceed his player prop total 59.9% of the time. He projects for 74.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $15.71. That makes its return on investment yield +14%.
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