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Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Diontae Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 67.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Johnson ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 90.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Johnson ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 95.2% of Pittsburgh's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Johnson ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 29.2% of passes this season.This year, the Steelers have played in the #4-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Ravens's pass defense ranks #30-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 182 yards per game this season.The Baltimore Ravens have allowed 9.23 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #31-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Ravens cornerbacks rank #27 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Ravens safeties rank #29 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Pittsburgh has run the #4-fastest paced offense this season.The Steelers enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Pittsburgh's O-Line grades out as the #7-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Johnson open.Pittsburgh's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.39 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Steelers have faced the #10-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.1%).
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CONS:
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Johnson ranks in the #27 percentile and has put up 7.30 yards per target this season.Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.The Baltimore Ravens rank #8-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 63.0%.Pittsburgh has run play-action on 19.6% of their passes this year, #30-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Johnson for a 0.8% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Johnson's 65.3% completion rate marks him in the #50 percentile among receivers.The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to run 63.4 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time (#13 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Pittsburgh to drop back to pass on 60.6% of their plays in this game (#18-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Johnson to exceed his player prop total 53.1% of the time. He projects for 72.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.75 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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