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Dez Fitzpatrick

Dez Fitzpatrick Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
Dez Fitzpatrick Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -115.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Fitzpatrick is projected for 3.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Tennessee is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (21.8%).

  • CONS:
  • New England's defense has allowed 144 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #25-most yards per target (7.72) against the Patriots this season.
  • The Patriots have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.9% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).
  • New England Patriots safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Titans project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.0% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).
  • Fitzpatrick's offensive line has been #27 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 26.2% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 32.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$3.93 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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