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DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 43.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Smith ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 85.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Smith ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 93.9% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Smith ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 23.9% of passes this season.Smith ranks in the #73 percentile and has put up 8.88 yards per target this season.The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to run 65.5 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Eagles are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Philadelphia's O-Line grades out as the #4-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Smith open.
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CONS:
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The weather forecast for this game calls for 18-mph wind. This is important because high winds lead to fewer pass completions.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 7.19 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #2-highest among NFL opponents.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank #7-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 62.7%.As a unit, the Buccaneers cornerbacks rank #10 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Buccaneers safeties rank #4 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 53.7% of the time (#32 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Smith for a 0.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Smith's 61.2% completion rate marks him in the #36 percentile among receivers.The Buccaneers's pass defense ranks #19-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 149 yards per game this season.In a neutral context, Philadelphia has run the #16-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects Philadelphia to drop back to pass on 49.3% of their plays in this game (#12-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Smith to exceed his player prop total 46.7% of the time. He projects for 44.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $2.01. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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