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DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
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DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-120/-115) with an implied projection of 55.9 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Smith has been on the field for 84.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.5% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 25.5% -- #90 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.New York Giants safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Eagles project to run 64.9 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Smith's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Philadelphia Eagles have run play-action on 33.0% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Smith has been in the #24 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.9% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #28-most yards per target (7.63) against the Giants this season.New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.Philadelphia is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 56.1% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 50.2% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Smith is projected for 0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.11 yards per target this season, ranking in the #60 percentile.New York's defense has allowed 166 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#12-most in football).The Giants have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.9% of their targets this season, (#11-most in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Philadelphia has faced the #20-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 58.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.45 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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