My Account Log Out
DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-120/-115) with an implied projection of 55.9 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -120.
  • Smith has been on the field for 84.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 93.5% of Philadelphia's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 25.5% -- #90 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • New York Giants safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Eagles project to run 64.9 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.
  • Smith's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Philadelphia Eagles have run play-action on 33.0% of their passes this year, #4-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Smith has been in the #24 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.9% completion rate.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #28-most yards per target (7.63) against the Giants this season.
  • New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the #4 unit in pass coverage.
  • Philadelphia is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 56.1% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 50.2% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Smith is projected for 0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.11 yards per target this season, ranking in the #60 percentile.
  • New York's defense has allowed 166 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#12-most in football).
  • The Giants have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.9% of their targets this season, (#11-most in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Philadelphia has faced the #20-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 58.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.45 and with a negative ROI of -5%.

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™