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Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Right now, Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 45.7% snap rate this year puts him in the #73 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Freeman for a 11.3% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Baltimore Ravens are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.The Ravens enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #4-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 49.4% of their plays.The Steelers defense has allowed 139 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #28-least in football.The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 4.90 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #31-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Pittsburgh have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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This year, the Ravens have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Baltimore's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.In a neutral context, Baltimore has run the #24-fastest paced offense this season.The defensive ends of Pittsburgh have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Steelers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #5-most in the NFL this year at 19.3% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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Freeman finds himself in the #39 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 37 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Baltimore's ranks #18 in that regard this season.His carry rate of 29.7% this year puts him in the #55 percentile among running backs.Baltimore has been the #21-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.2% run rate in a neutral context.The linebackers of Pittsburgh have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Pittsburgh have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Baltimore has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (15.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Freeman to exceed his player prop total 58.8% of the time. He projects for 60.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $11.53. That makes its return on investment yield +10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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