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Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
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Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 42.8 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 43.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #68 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Freeman is projected for 23.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offenses projects to runs 46.2% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bengals linebackers have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Baltimore has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Ravens project to run 61.3 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.Baltimore is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #5 against the run this year, holding opponents to 95 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.16 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#9-least in football).Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Freeman has been the #45-leading rusher this season, tallying 35 yards per game on the ground.The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has ranked #19 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 28.2% of Baltimore's carries this year -- #52 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 38.3% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.3% of the time in this contest.Bengals safeties have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Baltimore Ravens have faced a stacked box 15.5% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 68.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 69.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $35.95. It's return on investment would yeild 33%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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