My Account Log Out
Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers
Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-115/-120) with an implied projection of 51.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 42.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #67 percentile among running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Freeman is projected for 25.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 45.9% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • In terms of efficiency, Green Bay's defense has allowed 4.62 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#23-least in football).
  • Packers defensive ends have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 5.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #31 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Baltimore has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Ravens project to run 61.2 total plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.
  • Baltimore is a 9.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Packers linebackers have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Freeman has been the #44-leading rusher this season, tallying 36 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has ranked #18 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has received 28.5% of Baltimore's carries this year -- #50 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.9% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.9% of the time in this contest.
  • The Green Bay Packers have ranked #12 against the run this year, holding opponents to 106 yards per game on the ground.
  • Packers defensive tackles have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Packers safeties have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Baltimore Ravens have faced a stacked box 15.5% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.0% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $13.89. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™