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Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Devonta Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 44.7 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -120.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Freeman is projected for 17.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 46.6% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Browns defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • The Baltimore Ravens have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Ravens project to run 60.6 total plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.
  • Baltimore is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Cleveland Browns have ranked #10 against the run this year, holding opponents to 104 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Cleveland's defense has allowed 4.10 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#7-least in football).
  • Browns defensive ends have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Browns linebackers have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Freeman has been the #46-leading rusher this season, tallying 34 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has ranked #18 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 40.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #65 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 26.6% of Baltimore's carries this year -- #51 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Baltimore has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 39.4% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.4% of the time in this contest.
  • Browns safeties have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Baltimore Ravens have faced a stacked box 15.5% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.
  • The Cleveland Browns have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #20 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.67. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.

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