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Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 62.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 59.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 57.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #86 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 45.0% this year puts him in the #70 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Singletary for a 13.7% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Bills enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #6-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.6% of their plays.
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CONS:
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Singletary finds himself in the #68 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 51 yards.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Buffalo's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Buffalo has been the #30-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 32.4% run rate in a neutral context.The linebackers of New England have been the #10-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Buffalo's ranks #20 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.The Patriots defense has allowed 122 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #22-least in football.The New England Patriots have allowed 4.63 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #20-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of New England have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of New England have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of New England have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Singletary to exceed his player prop total 52.1% of the time. He projects for 65.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.51 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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