My Account Log Out
 
Devin Singletary

Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
 
 
 
Right now, Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 67.5 (-115/-115).

The money is on the Over: it opened 66.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • His 56.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #85 percentile among running backs.
  • His carry rate of 43.3% this year puts him in the #69 percentile among running backs.
  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Singletary for a 15.8% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • The Bills are a 16.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Jets defense has allowed 147 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #32-least in football.
  • The New York Jets have allowed 4.99 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #32-best in the metric this season.
  • The defensive tackles of New York have been the #25-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
  • The linebackers of New York have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
  • The safeties of New York have been the #27-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
  • Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (9.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.

  • CONS:
  • This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Buffalo could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.
  • Buffalo has been the #30-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 32.5% run rate in a neutral context.
  • The defensive ends of New York have been the #8-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
  • The Jets have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #2-most in the NFL this year at 21.9% of the time.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Singletary finds himself in the #61 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 49 yards.
  • The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Buffalo's ranks #20 in that regard this season.
  • In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.
  • The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #16-most on the game slate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #11-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 41.7% of their plays.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ projects Singletary to exceed his player prop total 59.2% of the time. He projects for 81.2 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $12.24. That makes its return on investment yield +11%.
     
     
     
    ABOUT WRITENOW™

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
     
     
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™