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Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons
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Right now, Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 54.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #81 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 42.0% this year puts him in the #69 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Singletary for a 17.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #7-most on the game slate.The Bills are a 14.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.The Falcons defense has allowed 125 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #23-least in football.The linebackers of Atlanta have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Atlanta have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Buffalo has faced the #27-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (9.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Falcons have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #30-most in the NFL this year at 7.8% of the time.
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CONS:
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This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Buffalo could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.Buffalo has been the #30-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 31.8% run rate in a neutral context.
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NEUTRAL:
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Singletary finds himself in the #53 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 45 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Buffalo's ranks #20 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #12-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 42.6% of their plays.The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 4.50 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #18-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Atlanta have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Atlanta have been the #20-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Singletary to exceed his player prop total 64.9% of the time. He projects for 78.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $24.62. That makes its return on investment yield +21%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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