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Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills
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Devin Singletary Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 48.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #72 percentile among running backs.He has received 38.6% of Buffalo's carries this year -- #35 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Bills project to run 64.0 total plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked box 9.7% of the time this season -- #27-most in football.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 11.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #23 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Buffalo has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Buffalo is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense runs the ball 32.0% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL), and they project to run 32.0% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 33.3% of the time in this contest (#26 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ranked #1 against the run this year, holding opponents to 81 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 3.97 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#5-least in football).Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Buccaneers safeties have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Singletary has been the #36-leading rusher this season, tallying 41 yards per game on the ground.The Buffalo Bills offensive line has ranked #20 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Singletary is projected for 1.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Buffalo Bills have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 38.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.18. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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