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DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Right now, DeSean Jackson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jackson ranks in the #90 percentile and has put up 10.02 yards per target this season.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Chargers cornerbacks rank #29 in pass coverage.The Raiders enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.4% of the time (#8 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Las Vegas to drop back to pass on 66.7% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Las Vegas's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.41 seconds on average this year (#11-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Raiders have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).
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CONS:
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The Chargers's pass defense ranks #6-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 139 yards per game this season.Las Vegas's O-Line grades out as the #24-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jackson open.Las Vegas has run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Jackson ranks in the #33 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 30.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jackson ranks in the #33 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 33.6% of Las Vegas's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Jackson ranks in the #35 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 6.4% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jackson for a -0.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Jackson's 60.8% completion rate marks him in the #33 percentile among receivers.The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 7.93 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #12-highest among NFL opponents.The Los Angeles Chargers rank #18-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 66.6%.As a unit, the Chargers safeties rank #20 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 63.4 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jackson to exceed his player prop total 51.3% of the time. He projects for 19.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$4.64 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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