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D'Ernest Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
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Right now, D'Ernest Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Cleveland has been the #11-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 40.7% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #10-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 42.7% of their plays.The Steelers defense has allowed 143 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #30-least in football.The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 4.94 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #29-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Pittsburgh have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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This year, the Browns have played in the #2-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cleveland's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 3-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, Cleveland has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.The Cleveland Browns are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.The defensive ends of Pittsburgh have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Cleveland has faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (16.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Steelers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #5-most in the NFL this year at 19.3% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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Johnson finds himself in the #50 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 40 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cleveland's ranks #22 in that regard this season.His 32.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #53 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 17.8% this year puts him in the #39 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Johnson for a -6.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The linebackers of Pittsburgh have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Pittsburgh have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Johnson to exceed his player prop total 35.3% of the time. He projects for 15.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $24.00. That makes its return on investment yield +21%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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