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Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 252.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 264.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 252.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #7-best in the league, Carr has passed for271 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #12-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.0% clip.In terms of efficiency, Carr has been #12 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.37 yards per target.The Raiders enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 63.8% of the time (#8 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Las Vegas to drop back to pass on 64.3% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Cincinnati's #27-ranked pass defense has allowed 254 passing yards per game this year.Cincinnati has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.4% of their targets, which ranks them #25-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's linebackers rank #32 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Raiders have played in 13 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #1-most in football and means Carr's numbers may be artificially inflated.Las Vegas's O-Line grades out as the #24-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #2-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 60.9 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.In terms of passing efficiency, Cincinnati's defense is #22-best. This is because they allowed 7.78 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #19-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #20-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive ends rank #16 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive tackles rank #13 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Carr to exceed his player prop total 51.2% of the time. He projects for 255.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.48 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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