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Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Right now, Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 269.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 273.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 269.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #7-best in the league, Carr has passed for278 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #6-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.0% clip.In terms of efficiency, Carr has been #8 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.55 yards per target.The Raiders enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.4% of the time (#8 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Las Vegas to drop back to pass on 66.7% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Las Vegas's offensive has kept pressure off Derek Carr for 2.41 seconds on average this year (#11-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Raiders have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #29-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive ends rank #31 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Raiders have played in 12 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #1-most in football and means Carr's numbers may be artificially inflated.Las Vegas's O-Line grades out as the #24-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Las Vegas has run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Los Angeles's #9-ranked pass defense has allowed 231 passing yards per game this year.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's defensive tackles rank #1 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles's linebackers rank #2 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 63.4 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.Los Angeles has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.7% of their targets, which ranks them #15-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Los Angeles's defense is #22-best. This is because they allowed 7.77 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #20-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Chargers, they've stacked the box on 15.6% of their plays this season, #13-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Carr to exceed his player prop total 65.2% of the time. He projects for 314.4 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $25.24. That makes its return on investment yield +22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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