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Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 250.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 249.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 250.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #6-best in the league, Carr has passed for281 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #9-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.6% clip.In terms of efficiency, Carr has been #9 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.54 yards per target.The Raiders are a 8.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.0% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Las Vegas to drop back to pass on 68.3% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Las Vegas's offensive has kept pressure off Derek Carr for 2.41 seconds on average this year (#11-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Raiders have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.3%).The Indianapolis Colts have had the #25-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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This year, the Raiders have played in 11 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #1-most in football and means Carr's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 59.7 plays in this matchup, the #30-most on the game slate.Las Vegas's O-Line grades out as the #24-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Las Vegas has run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Indianapolis has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.1% of their targets, which ranks them #8-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Indianapolis's defense is #7-best. This is because they allowed 7.24 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #10-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Indianapolis's defensive tackles rank #5 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Indianapolis's linebackers rank #2 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.Indianapolis's #16-ranked pass defense has allowed 248 passing yards per game this year.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #13-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Indianapolis's defensive ends rank #22 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Colts, they've stacked the box on 14.4% of their plays this season, #17-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Carr to exceed his player prop total 65.2% of the time. He projects for 294.4 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $25.27. That makes its return on investment yield +22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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