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Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 260.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 265.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 260.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Carr has passed for 285 yards per game this year, #6-best in the league.

Efficiency-wise, Carr has been #12 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.59 yards per target.

Las Vegas is a 9.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

This offense passes the ball 65.6% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).

This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Raiders offensive line has given Derek Carr 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.3%).

The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the #23-best pass defense this season, allowing 267 yards per game through the air.

The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.1% of their targets, ranking #23 in the NFL.

Kansas City's defense has been #26-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.22 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #30-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.

Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

CONS:

Las Vegas has played in 10 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.

Derek Carr's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #9-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

NEUTRAL:

He's been the #17-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.2% clip.

The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Raiders project to run 63.5 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.

Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

Chiefs linebackers have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 277.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.9% of the time.

The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.16. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.

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