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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
 
 
 
Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 260.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 265.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 260.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Carr has passed for 285 yards per game this year, #6-best in the league.
  • Efficiency-wise, Carr has been #12 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.59 yards per target.
  • Las Vegas is a 9.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 65.6% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Raiders offensive line has given Derek Carr 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.3%).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs enter this game with the #23-best pass defense this season, allowing 267 yards per game through the air.
  • The Chiefs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.1% of their targets, ranking #23 in the NFL.
  • Kansas City's defense has been #26-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.22 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #30-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Las Vegas has played in 10 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • Derek Carr's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #9-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box on 8.7% of their plays this season, #28-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • He's been the #17-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.2% clip.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Raiders project to run 63.5 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.
  • Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Chiefs linebackers have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 277.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.16. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
     
     
     
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