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Derek Carr Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Football Team
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Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 263.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 267.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 263.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Carr has passed for 291 yards per game this year, #5-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Carr has been #9 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.76 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 65.0% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Raiders offensive line has given Derek Carr 2.41 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Las Vegas have faced the #9-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.3%).The Washington Football Team enter this game with the #28-best pass defense this season, allowing 278 yards per game through the air.The WFT have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.3% of their targets, ranking #25 in the NFL.Washington's defense has been #24-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.26 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Washington Football Team have had the #32-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.WFT defensive ends have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.WFT linebackers have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Las Vegas has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Derek Carr's offensive line has been #24 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Las Vegas Raiders have run play-action on 15.5% of their passes this year, #32-most in the NFL.WFT defensive tackles have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #20-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.9% clip.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Raiders project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.The Washington Football Team have had the #14-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Washington Football Team have had the #22-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Washington Football Team have stacked the box on 13.2% of their plays this season, #20-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 314.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $29.33. It's return on investment would yeild 26%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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