My Account Log Out
 
Deonte Harris

Deonte Harris Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
 
 
 
Right now, Deonte Harris Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-115).

The money is on the Under: it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • In terms of earning targets, Harris ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 16.4% of passes this season.
  • New Orleans's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.
  • The Carolina Panthers rank #31-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 71.0%.
  • Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).

  • CONS:
  • Harris's 59.7% completion rate marks him in the #28 percentile among receivers.
  • The Panthers's pass defense ranks #6-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 138 yards per game this season.
  • The Saints are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
  • In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.9% of the time (#29 in the NFL).
  • THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 49.8% of their plays in this game (#30-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • In terms of playing time, Harris ranks in the #34 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 32.7% of his team's snaps this season.
  • In terms of route running, Harris ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 47.9% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season.
  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Harris for a 1.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • Harris ranks in the #43 percentile and has put up 7.90 yards per target this season.
  • The Carolina Panthers have allowed 8.64 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #22-highest among NFL opponents.
  • As a unit, the Panthers cornerbacks rank #22 in pass coverage.
  • As a unit, the Panthers safeties rank #15 in pass coverage.
  • In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #19-fastest paced offense this season.
  • The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.
  • New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #20-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Harris open.
  • New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ projects Harris to exceed his player prop total 69.6% of the time. He projects for 46.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $34.60. That makes its return on investment yield +30%.
     
     
     
    ABOUT WRITENOW™

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
     
     
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™