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Deonte Harris Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
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Deonte Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 32.2 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 15.7% -- #67 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Dallas's defense has allowed 187 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#4-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #10-most yards per target (9.04) against the Cowboys this season.New Orleans is a 6.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).
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CONS:
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Harris has been on the field for 31.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #32 percentile among wide receivers.The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.8% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).The Saints project to run 61.3 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 47.2% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has run a route on 47.7% of New Orleans's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #43 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harris is projected for 0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.16 yards per target this season, ranking in the #48 percentile.Harris has been in the #36 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.6% completion rate.Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have had the #18-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Harris's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 36.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.76. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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