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Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
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Right now, Demarcus Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Robinson's 69.9% completion rate marks him in the #73 percentile among receivers.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 2-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 64.3 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#2 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 65.9% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Robinson open.
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CONS:
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In terms of earning targets, Robinson ranks in the #32 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 5.9% of passes this season.The Bills's pass defense ranks #1-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 115 yards per game this season.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 6.36 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #1-highest among NFL opponents.The Buffalo Bills rank #3-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.9%.As a unit, the Bills cornerbacks rank #9 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Bills safeties rank #1 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Robinson ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 58.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Robinson ranks in the #56 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 62.7% of Kansas City's dropbacks this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Robinson for a -0.5% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Robinson ranks in the #48 percentile and has put up 8.01 yards per target this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Robinson to exceed his player prop total 38.0% of the time. He projects for 12.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $20.10. That makes its return on investment yield +18%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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