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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 63.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 60.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Samuel ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 81.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Samuel ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.8% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Samuel ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 25.9% of passes this season.Samuel ranks in the #97 percentile and has put up 10.40 yards per target this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Cowboys's pass defense ranks #28-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 163 yards per game this season.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 64.9 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 62.7% of their plays in this game (#6-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Samuel open.
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CONS:
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The Dallas Cowboys rank #1-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 57.6%.As a unit, the Cowboys safeties rank #7 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time (#28 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Samuel for a -0.9% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Samuel's 66.4% completion rate marks him in the #58 percentile among receivers.The Dallas Cowboys have allowed 8.12 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #15-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Cowboys cornerbacks rank #12 in pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Samuel to exceed his player prop total 61.0% of the time. He projects for 79.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $18.02. That makes its return on investment yield +16%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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