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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 58.5 (-125/-105), with an implied projection of 60.3 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Samuel ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 81.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Samuel ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.8% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Samuel ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 25.9% of passes this season.Samuel ranks in the #95 percentile and has put up 10.24 yards per target this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #23 in pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.The 49ers enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Samuel open.San Francisco has run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.45 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #5-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #2 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time (#27 in the NFL).San Francisco's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.52 seconds on average this year (#23-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The 49ers have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Samuel for a 0.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Samuel's 66.3% completion rate marks him in the #55 percentile among receivers.The Rams's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 153 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Rams rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.3%.THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 62.7% of their plays in this game (#12-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Samuel to exceed his player prop total 67.4% of the time. He projects for 84.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $26.74. That makes its return on investment yield +21%.
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