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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans
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Right now, Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 44.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Samuel ranks in the #84 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 81.4% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Samuel ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 88.6% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Samuel ranks in the #93 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 25.9% of passes this season.Samuel ranks in the #97 percentile and has put up 10.42 yards per target this season.This year, the 49ers have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Texans's pass defense ranks #24-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 168 yards per game this season.The Houston Texans have allowed 9.41 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #32-highest among NFL opponents.The Houston Texans rank #24-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.3%.As a unit, the Texans cornerbacks rank #30 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Texans safeties rank #29 in pass coverage.San Francisco's O-Line grades out as the #6-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Samuel open.San Francisco has run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, San Francisco has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The San Francisco 49ers are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.The 49ers are a 13.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects San Francisco to drop back to pass on 40.2% of their plays in this game (#32-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.San Francisco's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.52 seconds on average this year (#23-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The 49ers have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Samuel for a -1.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Samuel's 67.6% completion rate marks him in the #63 percentile among receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Samuel to exceed his player prop total 52.3% of the time. He projects for 49.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.66 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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