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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 42.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Samuel has been on the field for 81.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among wide receivers.

He has run a route on 89.7% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.

His target share this season has been 25.6% -- #93 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.96 yards per target this season, ranking in the #92 percentile.

San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.

Tennessee's defense has allowed 189 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#2-most in football).

Opposing wideouts have put up the #7-most yards per target (8.95) against the Titans this season.

The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.7% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).

Samuel's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.

CONS:

Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.

The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The 49ers project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.

San Francisco is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.

This offense passes the ball 58.4% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).

This offenses projects to pass 57.2% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-most time in the league).

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).

NEUTRAL:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Samuel is projected for -2.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #24 percentile among wide receivers.

Samuel has been in the #52 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.4% completion rate.

Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #17 unit in pass coverage.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 60.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.9% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $24.47. It's return on investment would yeild 21%.

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