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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
  • Samuel has been on the field for 82.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 90.4% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 28.4% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.82 yards per target this season, ranking in the #87 percentile.
  • San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Cincinnati's defense has allowed 167 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#10-most in football).
  • The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.4% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).
  • Samuel's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Samuel is projected for -5.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #25 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).
  • The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).

  • Samuel has been in the #52 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.6% completion rate.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.70) against the Bengals this season.
  • Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.
  • The 49ers project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 56.2% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 62.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.65. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.

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