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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Samuel has been on the field for 82.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 90.4% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 28.4% -- #98 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.82 yards per target this season, ranking in the #87 percentile.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Cincinnati's defense has allowed 167 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#10-most in football).The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.4% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).Samuel's offensive line has been #8 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Samuel is projected for -5.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #25 percentile among wide receivers.Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 57.3% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Samuel has been in the #52 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.6% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.70) against the Bengals this season.Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.The 49ers project to run 62.8 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 56.2% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 62.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.65. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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