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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Samuel has been on the field for 84.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 91.6% of San Francisco's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 29.6% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.16 yards per target this season, ranking in the #90 percentile.San Francisco has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Minnesota's defense has allowed 194 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #7-most yards per target (9.26) against the Vikings this season.Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the #30 unit in pass coverage.Samuel's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 29.5% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the #10 unit in pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.San Francisco is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 56.7% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Samuel is projected for -2.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #28 percentile among wide receivers.Samuel has been in the #50 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.8% completion rate.The Vikings have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.9% of their targets this season, (#21-most in the league).The 49ers project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.The 49ers offensive line has given the QB 2.48 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#19-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 82.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $9.94. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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