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DeAndre Carter Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Football Team
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DeAndre Carter Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.97 yards per target this season, ranking in the #85 percentile.Washington has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The WFT project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.Carter's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Las Vegas's defense has allowed 136 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#28-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #31-most yards per target (7.14) against the Raiders this season.The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 59.5% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL).The WFT offensive line has given the QB 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington has faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Carter has been on the field for 45.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #46 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 41.9% of Washington's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #38 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 8.3% -- #44 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Carter is projected for 1.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #84 percentile among wide receivers.Carter has been in the #47 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.2% completion rate.The Raiders have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.2% of their targets this season, (#18-most in the league).Las Vegas Raiders cornerbacks rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 60.0% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 28.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.74 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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