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Davis Mills Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans
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Right now, Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 220.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 247.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 220.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the Texans have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Mills's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, Houston has run the #11-fastest paced offense this season.The Texans are a 13.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Houston to drop back to pass on 63.4% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Houston's offensive has kept pressure off Davis Mills for 2.26 seconds on average this year (#1-most in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Texans have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).San Francisco has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.5% of their targets, which ranks them #25-best in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #29-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's linebackers rank #29 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, at #30-best in the league, Mills has passed for194 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Mills has been #30 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.50 yards per target.The Houston Texans are projected to run 58.0 plays in this matchup, the #32-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.9% of the time (#28 in the NFL).Houston's O-Line grades out as the #25-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.San Francisco's #10-ranked pass defense has allowed 236 passing yards per game this year.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #9-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #7-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive ends rank #3 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the 49ers, they've stacked the box on 9.7% of their plays this season, #26-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #21-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.2% clip.Houston has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.In terms of passing efficiency, San Francisco's defense is #19-best. This is because they allowed 7.80 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, San Francisco's defensive tackles rank #20 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mills to exceed his player prop total 55.1% of the time. He projects for 234.1 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $3.49. That makes its return on investment yield +3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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