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Davis Mills Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 218.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 215.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Houston has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Houston Texans have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Houston is a 13.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 65.8% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Texans offensive line has given Davis Mills 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-best in football).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).Los Angeles's cornerbacks grade out as the #23-best in pass coverage this year.Chargers defensive ends have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Mills has passed for 192 yards per game this year, #30-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Mills has been #33 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.36 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).Davis Mills's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Los Angeles Chargers enter this game with the #6-best pass defense this season, allowing 228 yards per game through the air.Los Angeles's linebackers grade out as the #7-best in pass coverage this year.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Chargers linebackers have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #24-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 64.5% clip.The Texans project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.3% of their targets, ranking #13-best in the NFL.The Los Angeles Chargers defense ranks #15-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.54.Los Angeles's safeties grade out as the #16-best in pass coverage this year.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box on 15.6% of their plays this season, #13-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Mills putting up 266.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 68.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $31.82. Its return on investment would yield +28%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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