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Davis Mills

Davis Mills Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 215.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 218.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 215.5 @ -115.
  • Houston has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • The Houston Texans have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Houston is a 13.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.8% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Texans offensive line has given Davis Mills 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-best in football).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston have faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).
  • Los Angeles's cornerbacks grade out as the #23-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Chargers defensive ends have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Mills has passed for 192 yards per game this year, #30-best in the league.
  • Efficiency-wise, Mills has been #33 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.36 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).
  • Davis Mills's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers enter this game with the #6-best pass defense this season, allowing 228 yards per game through the air.
  • Los Angeles's linebackers grade out as the #7-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Chargers linebackers have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • He's been the #24-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 64.5% clip.
  • The Texans project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.
  • The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.3% of their targets, ranking #13-best in the NFL.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers defense ranks #15-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.54.
  • Los Angeles's safeties grade out as the #16-best in pass coverage this year.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box on 15.6% of their plays this season, #13-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees Mills putting up 266.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 68.3% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $31.82. Its return on investment would yield +28%.

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