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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Chicago Bears vs New York Giants
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Right now, David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 70.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 69.5 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 70.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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His 77.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #99 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 64.8% this year puts him in the #95 percentile among running backs.The Bears enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Chicago has been the #6-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.1% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #9-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 44.4% of their plays.The Giants defense has allowed 128 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #24-least in football.The linebackers of New York have been the #24-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Giants have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #29-most in the NFL this year at 8.3% of the time.
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CONS:
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Montgomery finds himself in the #91 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 65 yards.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Chicago's ranks #12 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Montgomery for a 7.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Bears have played in the #10-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Chicago could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.In a neutral context, Chicago has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Chicago Bears are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #17-most on the game slate.The New York Giants have allowed 4.58 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #20-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of New York have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of New York have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of New York have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Chicago has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (13.2% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Montgomery to exceed his player prop total 63.1% of the time. He projects for 91.5 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $22.53. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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