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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 64.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Chicago Bears offensive line has ranked #11 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 76.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #99 percentile among running backs.He has received 63.9% of Chicago's carries this year -- #8 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Montgomery is projected for 12.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Chicago has played in the #15-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 42.5% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.5% of the time in this contest.
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CONS:
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Montgomery has been the #7-leading rusher this season, tallying 67 yards per game on the ground.Chicago is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.In terms of efficiency, Seattle's defense has allowed 3.90 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#2-least in football).Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks linebackers have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks safeties have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 20.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #4 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Chicago Bears have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bears project to run 63.7 total plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 37.7% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Seattle Seahawks have ranked #20 against the run this year, holding opponents to 116 yards per game on the ground.Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Chicago Bears have faced a stacked box 13.2% of the time this season -- #19-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 78.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.57. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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