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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Chicago Bears offensive line has ranked #11 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 77.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #99 percentile among running backs.He has received 63.5% of Chicago's carries this year -- #9 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 42.2% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.2% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 46.0% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Minnesota Vikings have ranked #26 against the run this year, holding opponents to 127 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Minnesota's defense has allowed 4.68 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#26-least in football).Vikings defensive ends have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Vikings linebackers have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Montgomery has been the #8-leading rusher this season, tallying 68 yards per game on the ground.Chicago is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Vikings safeties have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 16.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #10 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Montgomery is projected for -3.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Chicago has played in the #15-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Chicago Bears have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bears project to run 62.3 total plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Chicago Bears have faced a stacked box 13.2% of the time this season -- #19-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 81.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $21.85. It's return on investment would yeild 19%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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