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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
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David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 76.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #99 percentile among running backs.He has received 65.2% of Chicago's carries this year -- #8 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 42.8% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.8% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 44.3% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Packers defensive ends have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 5.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #31 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Montgomery has been the #7-leading rusher this season, tallying 71 yards per game on the ground.The Bears project to run 60.1 total plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.Chicago is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Packers linebackers have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Chicago Bears offensive line has ranked #12 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Montgomery is projected for -2.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Chicago has played in the #14-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Chicago Bears have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Green Bay Packers have ranked #11 against the run this year, holding opponents to 105 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Green Bay's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#20-least in football).Packers defensive tackles have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Packers safeties have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Chicago Bears have faced a stacked box 13.2% of the time this season -- #19-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 76.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.88. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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