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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 76.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #99 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 65.2% of Chicago's carries this year -- #8 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • This offense runs the ball 42.8% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.8% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 44.3% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Packers defensive ends have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 5.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #31 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Montgomery has been the #7-leading rusher this season, tallying 71 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Bears project to run 60.1 total plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • Chicago is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Packers linebackers have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The Chicago Bears offensive line has ranked #12 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Montgomery is projected for -2.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Chicago has played in the #14-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Chicago Bears have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Green Bay Packers have ranked #11 against the run this year, holding opponents to 105 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Green Bay's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#20-least in football).
  • Packers defensive tackles have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Packers safeties have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Chicago Bears have faced a stacked box 13.2% of the time this season -- #19-most in football.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 76.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.88. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.

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