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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals
David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 78.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #99 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 63.1% of Chicago's carries this year -- #8 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Bears project to run 64.2 total plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 42.5% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.5% of the time in this contest.
  • In terms of efficiency, Arizona's defense has allowed 4.78 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#28-least in football).
  • Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Cardinals linebackers have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Cardinals safeties have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Montgomery has been the #7-leading rusher this season, tallying 68 yards per game on the ground.
  • Chicago is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

  • The Chicago Bears offensive line has ranked #12 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Montgomery is projected for 5.5% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Chicago has played in 3 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#14-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Chicago Bears have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offenses projects to runs 41.4% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have ranked #18 against the run this year, holding opponents to 114 yards per game on the ground.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Chicago Bears have faced a stacked box 13.2% of the time this season -- #19-most in football.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 12.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #22 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 92.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.9% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $31.03. It's return on investment would yeild 27%.

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