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David Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks
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David Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 21.0 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Johnson has been the #61-leading rusher this season, tallying 16 yards per game on the ground.The Houston Texans have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 42.2% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.2% of the time in this contest.
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CONS:
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The Houston Texans offensive line has ranked #23 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Texans passing the ball more than usual.Houston is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.In terms of efficiency, Seattle's defense has allowed 3.95 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#4-least in football).Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks linebackers have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks safeties have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Houston Texans have faced a stacked box 15.7% of the time this season -- #11-most in football.The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 20.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #4 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 38.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #61 percentile among running backs.He has received 22.4% of Houston's carries this year -- #57 percentile when it comes to running backs.Houston has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Texans project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 37.3% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Seattle Seahawks have ranked #21 against the run this year, holding opponents to 120 yards per game on the ground.Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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