| |
David Johnson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Houston Texans vs New York Jets
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
David Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 26.0 yards.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Johnson is projected for 12.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #92 percentile among running backs.The Houston Texans have had the #11-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Texans project to run 63.9 total plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 41.6% of the time in a neutral context (#7 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.6% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 43.2% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The New York Jets have ranked #31 against the run this year, holding opponents to 144 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 5.23 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#32-least in football).Jets defensive tackles have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets linebackers have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Jets safeties have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Houston Texans offensive line has ranked #24 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Texans passing the ball more than usual.Jets defensive ends have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Houston Texans have faced a stacked box 15.9% of the time this season -- #10-most in football.The New York Jets have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 20.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #3 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Johnson has been the #72-leading rusher this season, tallying 14 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 38.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #60 percentile among running backs.He has received 20.2% of Houston's carries this year -- #64 percentile when it comes to running backs.Houston has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 36.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.04. It's return on investment would yeild 16%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
