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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 89.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 96.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 89.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Adams has been on the field for 89.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 94.0% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 33.1% -- #99 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.57 yards per target this season, ranking in the #84 percentile.Adams has been in the #84 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 73.4% completion rate.Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 64.9% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).Adams's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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Cleveland Browns cornerbacks rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 60.5 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.Green Bay is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Adams is projected for -1.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #42 percentile among wide receivers.Cleveland's defense has allowed 151 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#21-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #17-most yards per target (8.18) against the Browns this season.The Browns have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.3% of their targets this season, (#18-most in the league).This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Packers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 90.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.08 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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