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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers
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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 92.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 94.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 92.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Adams has been on the field for 89.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 93.8% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #96 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 34.0% -- #100 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.70 yards per target this season, ranking in the #83 percentile.Adams has been in the #81 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 72.3% completion rate.Baltimore's defense has allowed 173 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 64.6% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.8% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 59.6 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.Green Bay is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Adams is projected for 1.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.69) against the Ravens this season.This offenses projects to pass 59.9% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Adams's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Packers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 97.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.35 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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