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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Davante Adams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 88.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 89.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 88.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Adams has been on the field for 87.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 92.9% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #93 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 35.0% -- #100 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.41 yards per target this season, ranking in the #69 percentile.The Rams have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.2% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).This offense passes the ball 64.1% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 63.9% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Adams's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles's defense has allowed 147 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#24-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #26-most yards per target (7.67) against the Rams this season.Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Adams is projected for -1.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers.Adams has been in the #62 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.1% completion rate.Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.The Packers project to run 62.4 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay has faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.2%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 95.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.84. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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