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Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 48.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #75 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Williams for a 19.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #11-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 63.6 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.The Chiefs are a 11.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.
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CONS:
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This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Kansas City's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Kansas City has been the #31-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 29.6% run rate in a neutral context.The Broncos defense has allowed 107 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #10-least in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Williams finds himself in the #36 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 34 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Kansas City's ranks #14 in that regard this season.His carry rate of 37.4% this year puts him in the #65 percentile among running backs.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #18-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.4% of their plays.The Denver Broncos have allowed 4.32 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #14-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Denver have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Denver have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Denver have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Denver have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Williams to exceed his player prop total 51.7% of the time. He projects for 60.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.82 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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