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Darrel Williams

Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 17.0 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.
  • He has been on the field for 48.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #73 percentile among running backs.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chiefs project to run 66.5 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.
  • Kansas City is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #30 against the run this year, holding opponents to 144 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.88 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#29-least in football).
  • Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked box 5.8% of the time this season -- #31-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -18.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 29.1% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL), and they project to run 29.1% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 34.7% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Chargers safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Williams has been the #48-leading rusher this season, tallying 30 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has received 36.0% of Kansas City's carries this year -- #40 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Chargers linebackers have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 18.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.8% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.75 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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