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Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 17.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 48.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #73 percentile among running backs.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chiefs project to run 66.5 total plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.Kansas City is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #30 against the run this year, holding opponents to 144 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.88 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#29-least in football).Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked box 5.8% of the time this season -- #31-most in football.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -18.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 29.1% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL), and they project to run 29.1% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 34.7% of the time in this contest (#29 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Chargers safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Williams has been the #48-leading rusher this season, tallying 30 yards per game on the ground.The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 36.0% of Kansas City's carries this year -- #40 percentile when it comes to running backs.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers linebackers have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 18.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.75 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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