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Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
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Darrel Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 25.9 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 49.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #74 percentile among running backs.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Kansas City is a 8.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked box 5.8% of the time this season -- #31-most in football.The Denver Broncos have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #27 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -10.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Kansas City has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 28.7% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL), and they project to run 28.7% of the time in this contest.The Denver Broncos have ranked #8 against the run this year, holding opponents to 103 yards per game on the ground.Broncos defensive ends have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Broncos defensive tackles have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Broncos linebackers have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Broncos safeties have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Williams has been the #45-leading rusher this season, tallying 33 yards per game on the ground.The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has ranked #14 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has received 38.6% of Kansas City's carries this year -- #36 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Chiefs project to run 62.0 total plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.This offenses projects to runs 37.3% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, Denver's defense has allowed 4.35 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#13-least in football).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 29.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.29. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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