| |
Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
In terms of playing time, Mooney ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 87.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Mooney ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 92.7% of Chicago's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Mooney ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.8% of passes this season.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Vikings's pass defense ranks #32-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 189 yards per game this season.The Minnesota Vikings have allowed 9.08 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #28-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Vikings cornerbacks rank #32 in pass coverage.The Bears enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Chicago to drop back to pass on 63.8% of their plays in this game (#8-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Mooney's 58.3% completion rate marks him in the #22 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Vikings safeties rank #6 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
This week, THE BLITZ projects Mooney for a -0.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Mooney ranks in the #33 percentile and has put up 7.53 yards per target this season.The Minnesota Vikings rank #22-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.4%.In a neutral context, Chicago has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Chicago Bears are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.Chicago's O-Line grades out as the #21-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Mooney open.Chicago's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.44 seconds on average this year (#16-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Chicago has run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bears have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Mooney to exceed his player prop total 60.6% of the time. He projects for 70.9 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $15.27. That makes its return on investment yield +13%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
