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Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Chicago Bears vs New York Giants
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Right now, Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Mooney ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 87.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Mooney ranks in the #92 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 92.7% of Chicago's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Mooney ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.8% of passes this season.The Giants's pass defense ranks #23-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 164 yards per game this season.The New York Giants rank #26-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.6%.
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CONS:
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Mooney's 57.9% completion rate marks him in the #18 percentile among receivers.The New York Giants have allowed 7.83 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #9-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Giants cornerbacks rank #6 in pass coverage.The Bears enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.9% of the time (#27 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Chicago to drop back to pass on 55.6% of their plays in this game (#24-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Chicago's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Mooney open.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Mooney for a -1.8% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Mooney ranks in the #34 percentile and has put up 7.59 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Giants safeties rank #22 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Chicago has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Chicago Bears are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #17-most on the game slate.Chicago's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.44 seconds on average this year (#16-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Chicago has run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bears have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mooney to exceed his player prop total 55.2% of the time. He projects for 49.4 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $3.68. That makes its return on investment yield +3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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