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Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
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Right now, Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, the Giants have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Slayton's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.The WFT's pass defense ranks #29-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 182 yards per game this season.The Washington Football Team have allowed 8.90 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #27-highest among NFL opponents.The Washington Football Team rank #29-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 69.0%.As a unit, the WFT safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, New York has run the #9-fastest paced offense this season.The Giants enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.New York's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.38 seconds on average this year (#4-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.New York has run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Slayton ranks in the #10 percentile and has put up 5.69 yards per target this season.Slayton's 43.7% completion rate marks him in the #3 percentile among receivers.Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.THE BLITZ projects New York to drop back to pass on 51.9% of their plays in this game (#27-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.New York's O-Line grades out as the #28-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Slayton open.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Slayton ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 55.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Slayton ranks in the #62 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 69.4% of New York's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Slayton ranks in the #63 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 13.7% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Slayton for a 1.8% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.As a unit, the WFT cornerbacks rank #16 in pass coverage.The New York Giants are projected to run 62.8 plays in this matchup, the #15-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.3% of the time (#18 in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Giants have faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Slayton to exceed his player prop total 42.7% of the time. He projects for 23.9 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $8.28. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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