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Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
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Darius Slayton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 36.2 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Slayton is projected for 3.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers.New York has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Miami's defense has allowed 192 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#2-most in football).New York is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 64.4% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 63.4% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.22 yards per target this season, ranking in the #25 percentile.Slayton has been in the #9 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 51.0% completion rate.Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.The Giants project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.Slayton's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Slayton has been on the field for 48.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 65.3% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 14.7% -- #64 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #13-most yards per target (8.64) against the Dolphins this season.The Dolphins have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.3% of their targets this season, (#17-most in the league).Miami Dolphins cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.63. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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