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Dare Ogunbowale Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
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Right now, Dare Ogunbowale Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 39.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 40.2 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 42.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Ogunbowale for a 38.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Jacksonville has run the #2-fastest paced offense this season.Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (11.1% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Jacksonville's ranks #28 in that regard this season.His 20.1% snap rate this year puts him in the #31 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 11.5% this year puts him in the #26 percentile among running backs.The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to run 59.2 plays in this matchup, the #32-most on the game slate.The Jaguars are a 14.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The defensive tackles of Indianapolis have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Indianapolis have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, the Jaguars have played in the #18-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Jacksonville could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.Jacksonville has been the #14-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 39.8% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #22-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.2% of their plays.The Colts defense has allowed 109 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #17-least in football.The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 4.58 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #20-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Indianapolis have been the #16-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Indianapolis have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Colts have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #17-most in the NFL this year at 14.4% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Ogunbowale to exceed his player prop total 55.3% of the time. He projects for 44.9 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.75. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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